Experts predict 9,000 deaths per day in China, while what the US says?

The US is considering sampling wastewater from international aircraft to detect any emerging new Covid-19 types as infections in China rise, with UK-based health specialists estimating that 9,000 people die of the disease in China every day.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's suggested wastewater testing would give a better answer to tracking the virus and delaying its introduction into the US than the additional travel restrictions announced this week, according to three infectious disease experts.

The United States and a number of other countries have stated that travellers from China will be required to undergo mandatory negative Covid testing.

Their remarks came as the UK-based health data business Airfinity reported that over 9,000 people in China were likely dying from Covid each day, roughly doubling its estimate from a week previously.

Covid infections began to spread across China in November, with the pace ramping up this month when Beijing abandoned its zero-Covid measures, which included regular PCR testing on its population and the disclosure of statistics on asymptomatic cases.

According to Airfinity, the overall number of deaths in China since December 1 has likely approached 100,000, with 18.6 million infections. It employed modelling based on data from Chinese provinces prior to the latest modifications to reporting instances, according to the study.

Airfinity predicts that China's Covid infections would peak on January 13 with 3.7 million cases per day.

Their results contrasted with the tens of thousands of cases recorded by Chinese health officials every day since a statewide network of PCR test centres was mostly dismantled and authorities shifted their focus from infection prevention to infection treatment.

The European Union's health agency said on Thursday it believed the EU-wide introduction of mandatory Covid screenings for travellers from China was currently "unjustified", pointing to the "higher population immunity in the EU/EEA, as well as the prior emergence and subsequent replacement of variants currently circulating in China".

 

The United States also expanded its volunteer genetic sequencing programme at airports this week, adding Seattle and Los Angeles. The total number of airports collecting data from positive testing now stands at seven.

However, experts warn that this may not provide a representative sample size.